Track record

Our top-scored startups went on to raise their next round 11x as often

We score every startup we cover on its potential. Weeks to months later we checked which ones announced their next funding round. 16 did, and 11 of them were in the top quarter of our score.

5.1% vs 0.4%: the share of startups in the top vs bottom quarter of our potential score that announced a next funding round, among the 865 startups we covered from May 2026 to August 2026, checked in early October 2026.

Next-round rate by potential score

Share of startups in each quarter of our potential score that announced a next funding round
Top quarter5.1%5.1% (11 of 214)
Second quarter1.9%1.9% (4 of 216)
Third quarter0.0%0.0% (0 of 208)
Bottom quarter0.4%0.4% (1 of 227)

Before the news

Six selected examples. Three announced a new round after we covered them; for the other three, our issue reported the round before the press did. Each shows our issue as published, then the first press, company or founder report of what followed. The gap averages 9.8 weeks.

  1. InsForge

    19 weeks before its round was announced

    Announced a new round after we covered it

    In EarlySignals, May 17, 2026 (potential 81)
    “InsForge offers an open-source Postgres backend for AI coding agents that uses Model Context Protocol servers. The project leads MCPMark benchmarks and reached 9,900 GitHub stars after admission to YC P26.”
    Sep 29, 2026
    Announced an $8M seed. Founder on X (opens in a new tab)
  2. Gaia

    12 weeks before the press

    We reported the round before the press did

    In EarlySignals, Jun 15, 2026 (potential 62)
    “Gaia offers an on-premise AI platform for Saudi enterprises that must keep data inside the kingdom. It closed a 1.5 million dollar pre-seed round led by Seedra Ventures.”
    Sep 8, 2026
    Press reports the $1.5M pre-seed. Wamda (opens in a new tab)
  3. Arrakis

    3 weeks before its round was announced

    Announced a new round after we covered it

    In EarlySignals, Jun 29, 2026 (potential 72)
    “Arrakis builds an AI agent platform for industrial operations with model-agnostic orchestration and knowledge graphs. Three founders from Palantir and Accel secured backing from Accel.”
    Jul 22, 2026
    Announced a $30M Series A, out of stealth with $38M in total. Fortune (opens in a new tab)
  4. Airbound

    7 weeks before the press

    We reported the round before the press did

    In EarlySignals, Jul 6, 2026 (potential 79)
    “Naman Pushp's Airbound builds 130-gram tailsitter drones for medical sample flights in India. The company logged 13,000 autonomous flights, 1,000 with Narayana Health, and raised nearly 50 million dollars.”
    Aug 24, 2026
    Press reports its $37M Series A, part of the nearly $50M we reported. TechCrunch (opens in a new tab)
  5. Arga Labs

    7 weeks before the press

    We reported the round before the press did

    In EarlySignals, Jul 6, 2026 (potential 72)
    “Arga Labs builds stateful digital twins of SaaS services so AI agents can rehearse multi-app workflows. The company raised a $10 million seed round led by General Catalyst after joining YC's Spring 2026 batch.”
    Aug 26, 2026
    Press reports its $10M seed. TechCrunch (opens in a new tab)
  6. Complir

    10 weeks before its round was announced

    Announced a new round after we covered it

    In EarlySignals, Jul 6, 2026 (potential 82)
    “Complir builds an AI platform that tracks regulatory compliance for over 100,000 physical consumer products. Founders spent a year inside Flying Tiger Copenhagen's teams to map real workflows before raising 1.7 million euros and joining YC Spring 2026.”
    Sep 16, 2026
    Announced an $11M seed led by General Catalyst. Tech.eu (opens in a new tab)

How we checked

We took every startup we published from May 2026 to August 2026, 865 in all, each counted once with the potential score it had the first time we covered it. For each one we searched for a new equity round announced afterwards, then checked every candidate by hand against the press, company and founder posts on X and LinkedIn, and archived web pages.

We count strictly. A round counts only if it was first made public more than a week after our issue. The round we had already reported does not count, and neither does money added to it later. Grants, debt, tokens and rumored rounds do not count.

Of 865 startups, 16 announced a next round by early October 2026, when we checked: one to nearly five months after we covered them. We plan to rerun the check in January 2027 and update this page.